It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
